Top 15 QBs to Draft in Fantasy

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Fantasy football season is inching closer and closer. It’s already June, and if you’re like me, you’re already going through mock drafts to see who you can draft when and where. This article is simply for redraft leagues. Below you can find the top-15 fantasy QBs entering the 2021 fantasy season. Make sure to check out the top-5 QBs to avoid drafting if you haven’t already. Let’s get this party started! 

 

15) Matt Ryan – Atlanta Falcons

Does Matt Ryan belong in the Hall of Fame? – The Athletic

Ryan’s Career Stats

Year Team Games Played Completion Percentage Yards TDs INTs Rushing Yards TDs
2008 ATL 16 61.1% 3,440 16 11 104 1
2009 ATL 14 58.3% 2,916 22 14 49 1
2010 ATL 16 62.5% 3,705 28 9 122 0
2011 ATL 16 61.3% 4,177 29 12 84 2
2012 ATL 16 68.6% 4,719 32 14 141 1
2013 ATL 16 67.4% 4,515 26 17 55 0
2014 ATL 16 66.1% 4,694 28 14 145 0
2015 ATL 16 66.3% 4,591 21 16 63 0
2016 ATL 16 69.9% 4,944 38 7 117 0
2017 ATL 16 64.7% 4,095 20 12 143 0
2018 ATL 16 69.4% 4,924 35 7 125 3
2019 ATL 15 66.2% 4,466 26 14 147 1
2020 ATL 16 65.0% 4,581 26 11 92 2

 

Ryan has been as consistent as any QB in the league since 2011. He ALWAYS throws for more than 4,000 yards, and he’s usually a top-15 fantasy QB. He finished outside the top-15 once during that span (2015), and he finished as the QB12 in 2020. Although he will be without Julio Jones, the combination of Calvin Ridley, Kyle Pitts, Hayden Hurst and Russell Gage should suffice. Don’t expect outlandish numbers from the 36-year-old signal-caller, but expect a typical “Matt Ryan” season. 

 

Ryan’s 2021 Prediction 

Passing: 4,753 yards, 28 touchdowns, 14 interceptions

Rushing: 127 yards, 1 touchdown, 4 fumbles

Fantasy Points: 288.8 STD Points

 

14) Baker Mayfield – Cleveland Browns

Baker Mayfield was PFF's top-graded QB in Week 15

Mayfield’s Career Stats

Year Team Games Played Completion Percentage Yards TDs INTs Rushing Yards TDs
2018 CLE 14 63.8% 3,725 27 14 131 0
2019 CLE 16 59.4% 3,827 22 21 141 3
2020 CLE 16 62.8% 3,563 26 8 165 1

 

Mayfield took a big step forward last season as he went from being the QB19 in 2019 to the QB17 in 2020. That doesn’t tell the big picture. He simply threw 13 less interceptions and four more touchdowns in 2020 from the season prior. He also led his team to the AFC Championship game against the Kansas City Chiefs. Expect an even better season this year, but don’t expect him to dominate fantasy football. He’ll also get a healthy Odell Beckham Jr. back. Mayfield should be a solid backup for your fantasy team and an eventual spot-starter from time-to-time.

 

Mayfield’s 2021 Prediction

Passing: 3,939 yards, 29 touchdowns, 9 interceptions

Rushing: 211 yards, 2 touchdowns, 3 fumbles

Fantasy Points: 291.7 STD Points

 

13) Kirk Cousins – Minnesota Vikings

Kirk Cousins ranked as NFL's 7th-best deep passer of 2020

Cousins’ Career Stats

Year Team Games Played Completion Percentage Yards TDs INTs Rushing Yards TDs
2012 WAS 3 68.8% 466 4 3 22 0
2013 WAS 5 52.3% 854 4 7 14 0
2014 WAS 6 61.8% 1,710 10 9 20 0
2015 WAS 16 69.8% 4,166 29 11 48 5
2016 WAS 16 67.0% 4,917 25 12 96 4
2017 WAS 16 64.3% 4,093 27 13 179 4
2018 MIN 16 70.1% 4,298 30 10 123 1
2019 MIN 15 69.1% 3,603 26 6 63 1
2020 MIN 16 67.6% 4,265 35 13 156 1

 

Captain Kirk finished as the QB11 last season as he finished with a career-high in passing touchdowns (35). He has a dynamic duo at the WR position in Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson. It also helps that Cousins has one of the best RBs (Dalvin Cook) in the league lining up behind him. Irv Smith Jr. is also an up-and-coming TE in the league, and with the plethora of talent surrounding him, Cousins should produce similar numbers to last season. Right now, he’s a low end QB1/high end QB2 entering the 2021 season. If you can draft Cousins as your backup, you will be in a really good spot when it comes to your QB position. 

 

Cousin’s 2021 Prediction

Passing: 4,255 yards, 32 touchdowns, 12 interceptions

Rushing: 126 yards, 2 touchdowns, 4 fumbles

Fantasy Points: 294.8 STD Points

 

12) Ryan Tannehill – Tennessee Titans

Titans' Ryan Tannehill lands two coveted NFL honors after stellar 2019 season - CBSSports.com

Tannehill’s Career Stats

Year Team Games Played Completion Percentage Yards TDs INTs Rushing Yards TDs
2012 MIA 16 58.3% 3,294 12 13 211 2
2013 MIA 16 60.4% 3,913 24 17 238 1
2014 MIA 16 66.4% 4,045 27 12 311 1
2015 MIA 16 61.9% 4,208 24 12 141 1
2016 MIA 13 67.1% 2,995 19 12 164 1
2018 MIA 11 64.2% 1,979 17 9 145 0
2019 TEN 12 70.3% 2,742 22 6 185 4
2020 TEN 16 65.5% 3,819 33 7 266 7

 

Revitalized as a member of the Tennessee Titans, Tannehill will now throw passes to the best pass-catcher he’s ever played with in Julio Jones. Combine Jones with A.J. Brown, and you have one of the best WR duos in the league. Outside of those two, there isn’t a lot of promise. Tennessee’s starting TE looks to be Anthony Firkser, and Josh Reynolds is the only other relevant WR on their roster. The Titans will certainly revolve their offense around Derrick Henry once again, but the addition of Jones makes things interesting for Tannehill’s fantasy value. He finished as the QB7 last season, but don’t expect him to finish that high in 2021. His OC Arthur Smith left for Atlanta, and we could see a lot less success on the ground for the mobile QB. 

 

Tannehill’s 2021 Prediction 

Passing: 3,985 yards, 30 touchdowns, 10 interceptions

Rushing: 232 yards, 4 touchdowns, 3 fumbles

Fantasy Points: 303.6 STD Points

 

11) Joe Burrow – Cincinnati Bengals 

Joe Burrow wants Bengals' offense to be 'more explosive' downfield in 2021

Burrow’s Career Stats

Year Team Games Played Completion Percentage Yards TDs INTs Rushing Yards TDs
2020 CIN 10 65.3% 2,688 13 5 142 3

 

The 2020 NFL Draft’s No. 1 overall pick played in just 10 games his rookie season. He suffered a torn left ACL, MCL, and partial tears in his PCL and meniscus. He is now expected to be full-go once the season starts. Sure, you can expect some rust once he comes back to the field, but he showed promising numbers before he went down for the remainder of the season. In the first 10 weeks of the season, Burrow served as the QB15 as a rookie. He now has his former college teammate, Ja’Marr Chase, catching passes from him. Burrow should put together a solid fantasy season considering the weapons that surround him in Cincinnati. 

 

Burrow’s 2021 Prediction

Passing: 4,343 yards, 29 touchdowns, 12 interceptions

Rushing: 251 yards, 3 touchdowns, 4 fumbles

Fantasy Points: 304.8 STD Points

 

10) Tom Brady – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Buccaneers vs. Packers odds, line: NFL pick, predicted by top-class models of the 2021 NFC Championship Game – NFL Sports – Jioforme

Brady’s Career Stats

Year Team Games Played Completion Percentage Yards TDs INTs Rushing Yards TDs
2000 NE 1 33.3% 6 0 0 0 0
2001 NE 15 63.9% 2,843 18 12 43 0
2002 NE 16 62.1% 3,764 28 14 110 1
2003 NE 16 60.2% 3,620 23 12 63 1
2004 NE 16 60.8% 3,692 28 14 28 0
2005 NE 16 63.0% 4,110 26 14 89 1
2006 NE 16 61.8% 3,529 24 12 102 0
2007 NE 16 68.9% 4,806 50 8 98 2
2008 NE 1 63.6% 76 0 0 0 0
2009 NE 16 65.7% 4,398 28 13 44 1
2010 NE 16 65.9% 3,900 36 4 30 1
2011 NE 16 65.6% 5,235 39 12 109 3
2012 NE 16 63.0% 4,827 34 8 32 4
2013 NE 16 60.5% 4,343 25 11 18 0
2014 NE 16 64.1% 4,109 33 9 57 0
2015 NE 16 64.4% 4,770 36 7 53 3
2016 NE 12 67.4% 3,554 28 2 64 0
2017 NE 16 66.3% 4,577 32 8 28 0
2018 NE 16 65.8% 4,355 29 11 35 2
2019 NE 16 60.8% 4,057 24 8 34 3
2020 TB 16 65.7% 4,633 40 12 6 3

 

Last season, Brady finished with at least 40 passing touchdowns for just the second time in his 21 seasons in the league. With arguably one of the best receiving groups he has ever played with, Brady finished as the QB8 last year in fantasy. The future Hall of Famer finished the season on a hot note. In fact, he was the QB2 during the last three weeks of the season. Those last few weeks are very important in fantasy because they ultimately serve as the fantasy playoffs. Oh and one more thing, Brady is receiving every skill player back this season from last year. Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski, Cameron Brate, Ronald Jones, and Leonard Fournette are back. O.J. Howard will be back from injury, and the team even brought in Giovani Bernard to add more depth to their RB room. Brady will have a fine season, but he won’t consistently score 25 or more fantasy points each week. 

 

Brady’s 2021 Prediction

Passing: 4,814 yards, 36 touchdowns, 12 interceptions

Rushing: 25 yards, 2 fumbles

Fantasy Points: 313.1 STD Points

 

9) Jalen Hurts – Philadelphia Eagles

Jalen Hurts says he's not above competition when asked about not officially being named QB1 for the Eagles - CBSSports.com

Hurts’ Career Stats

Year Team Games Played Completion Percentage Yards TDs INTs Rushing Yards TDs
2020 PHI 15 52.0% 1,061 6 4 354 3

 

The second-year pro is coming off a season where he only started four games. He played a majority of snaps in just five games, and he showed off great mobility when he was on the field. His former college teammate, Devonta Smith, will join Philadelphia’s weak WR room. Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz should see plenty of opportunities from Hurts, and Philadelphia has surrounded him with great pass-catching RBs out of the backfield (Miles Sanders, Boston Scott, Kerryon Johnson, and Kenneth Gainwell). Although his numbers weren’t great, Hurts was the QB7 between weeks 14 and 17, and he finished as the QB1 in Week 15. He will likely struggle passing the ball, but his mobility is intriguing in the fantasy world. 

 

Hurts’ 2021 Prediction

Passing: 3,754 yards, 23 touchdowns, 14 interceptions

Rushing: 766 yards, 6 touchdowns, 4 fumbles

Fantasy Points: 322.8 STD Points

 

8) Justin Herbert – L.A. Chargers

Chargers barely beat Jets; Justin Herbert sets rookie record - Los Angeles Times

Herbert’s Career Stats

Year Team Games Played Completion Percentage Yards TDs INTs Rushing Yards TDs
2020 LAC 15 66.6% 4,336 31 10 234 5

 

The 23-year-old put together an outstanding rookie campaign last season. He broke a couple of rookie records by throwing for the most passing touchdowns (31) and the most completions (396) in a rookie season last year. He was also just 39 passing yards shy of breaking Andrew Luck’s rookie record of 4,375 yards. Oh, and I forgot to mention, he did all of this without playing in Week 1. Herbert finished as the QB9 last season, but he finished as the QB6 from Week 2 on. The only issue heading into his second season is the fact that he won’t be throwing passes to Hunter Henry anymore. Instead, his starting TE will be veteran Jared Cook. Add the veteran to a receiving core of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Jalen Guyton, Austin Ekeler, and you can see how Herbert could easily pass for 40 touchdowns this season. His anticipated amount of rushing yards and attempts will likely decrease from last year, and this will set his fantasy value back a bit. But nonetheless, expect a similar season to last year. 

 

Herbert’s 2021 Prediction

Passing: 4,552 yards, 40 touchdowns, 14 interceptions

Rushing: 203 yards, 2 touchdowns, 4 fumbles

Fantasy Points: 342.4 STD Points

 

7) Aaron Rodgers – Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers' rift with Packers deepens as QB skips mandatory training camp | Green Bay Packers | The Guardian

Rodgers’ Career Stats

Year Team Games Played Completion Percentage Yards TDs INTs Rushing Yards TDs
2005 GB 3 56.3% 65 0 1 7 0
2006 GB 2 40.0% 46 0 0 11 0
2007 GB 2 71.4% 218 1 0 29 0
2008 GB 16 63.6% 4,038 28 13 207 4
2009 GB 16 64.7% 4,434 30 7 316 5
2010 GB 15 65.7% 3,922 28 11 356 4
2011 GB 15 68.3% 4,643 45 6 257 3
2012 GB 16 67.2% 4,295 39 8 259 2
2013 GB 9 66.6% 2,536 17 6 120 0
2014 GB 16 65.6% 4,381 38 5 269 2
2015 GB 16 60.7% 3,821 31 8 344 1
2016 GB 16 65.7% 4,428 40 7 369 4
2017 GB 7 64.7% 1,675 16 6 126 0
2018 GB 16 62.3% 4,442 25 2 269 2
2019 GB 16 62.0% 4,002 26 4 183 1
2020 GB 16 70.7% 4,299 48 5 149 3

 

For this article, we will assume Rodgers eventually gives in and plays for Green Bay for at least one more season. For fantasy purposes, this is great because he is usually overlooked, and you can get good value for him in the later rounds. In fact, his ADP last season was around the QB13 spot in one-QB leagues. He finished as the QB3, and he finished as the MVP of the regular season. Expect a decline this season from the 16-year veteran. It’s hard to imagine him throwing 48 touchdown passes again (career high). Nonetheless, his team is returning nearly every relevant skills position player from last season besides Jamaal Williams, and Devin Funchess will likely play after opting out of 2020. 

 

Rodgers’ 2021 Prediction

Passing: 4,563 yards, 37 touchdowns, 7 interceptions

Rushing: 158 yards, 2 touchdowns, 3 fumbles

Fantasy Points: 343.3 STD Points

 

6) Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott Posted Telling Message On Instagram

Prescott’s Career Stats

Year Team Games Played Completion Percentage Yards TDs INTs Rushing Yards TDs
2016 DAL 16 67.8% 3,667 23 4 282 6
2017 DAL 16 62.9% 3,324 22 13 357 6
2018 DAL 16 67.7% 3,885 22 8 305 6
2019 DAL 16 65.1% 4,902 30 11 277 3
2020 DAL 5 68.0% 1,856 9 4 93 3

 

RECORDS. Prescott was on pace to break passing records before he suffered a broken ankle in Week 5 and ultimately missed the rest of the season. As you can see above, he threw for 1,856 yards and nine touchdowns while also rushing for 93 yards and an additional three touchdowns. As mentioned, he went down in Week 5, and he actually suffered his injury halfway through the third quarter. Essentially, he only played in about 4.625 games. If we equate his totals through those amount of games played on a 16-game scale, Prescortt would have hypothetically finished with about 6,421 passing yards (easily breaking the NFL record), 31 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 321 rushing yards, and 10 rushing touchdowns. These numbers would’ve equated to about 442 STD fantasy points, which would also be a record. Now, we have to assume that Prescott will no longer keep that pace, but it gives a glimpse of what he is capable of doing. Expect his rushing statistics to go down because of his recent injury. Without the elite mobility, or lack of will to be mobile, Prescott will more than likely sit outside of the top-5 this season in fantasy. 

 

Prescott’s 2021 Prediction

Passing: 4,892 yards, 34 touchdowns, 13 interceptions

Rushing: 265 yards, 5 touchdowns, 4 fumbles

Fantasy Points: 358.2 STD Points

 

5) Russell Wilson – Seattle Seahawks 

What's Next for Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks? | Bleacher Report | Latest News, Videos and Highlights

Wilson’s Career Stats

Year Team Games Played Completion Percentage Yards TDs INTs Rushing Yards TDs
2012 SEA 16 64.1% 3,118 26 10 489 4
2013 SEA 16 63.1% 3,357 26 9 539 1
2014 SEA 16 63.1% 3,475 20 7 849 6
2015 SEA 16 68.1% 4,024 34 8 553 1
2016 SEA 16 64.7% 4,219 21 11 259 1
2017 SEA 16 61.3% 3,983 34 11 586 3
2018 SEA 16 65.6% 3,448 35 7 376 0
2019 SEA 16 66.1% 4,110 31 5 342 3
2020 SEA 16 68.8% 4,212 40 13 513 2

 

It’s hard to imagine Wilson placing outside the top-5 amongst fantasy QBs. His track record is off the charts. Here are a few fun facts surrounding Wilson and his impact in fantasy football. He has finished outside the top-10 QBs just once (2016) since 2013. Wilson finished as the QB1 in 2017, and he has finished inside the top-5 four times since 2014. Last year, he finished as the QB6, and since 2013, his average finish is as the QB6. He’s slightly above that placement on this list simply because of his ability to stay healthy. The 32-year-old signal-caller has yet to miss a single game in his nine-year career (knock on wood). He will be throwing passes to one of the top receiving groups in the league featuring both Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. Expect Wilson to rely on his new TE, Gerald Everett, a ton as well. Don’t be surprised if we see a lot of “let Wilson cook” chants throughout the season. 

 

Wilson’s 2021 Prediction

Passing: 4,316 yards, 36 touchdowns, 11 interceptions

Rushing: 452 yards, 4 touchdowns, 3 fumbles

Fantasy Points: 360.8 STD Points

 

4) Lamar Jackson – Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson Doesn't Want to Run, but He Will if You Make Him - The New York Times

Jackson’s Career Stats

Year Team Games Played Completion Percentage Yards TDs INTs Rushing Yards TDs
2018 BAL 7 58.2% 1,201 6 3 695 5
2019 BAL 15 66.1% 3,127 36 6 1,206 7
2020 BAL 15 64.4% 2,757 26 9 1,005 7

 

During the whole entire history of the NFL, there hasn’t been a QB that’s more lethal with his legs than Lamar Jackson (Michael Vick is a close second). In 2019, Jackson scored 162.6 STD points just with his legs. Those numbers alone would have placed him as the QB30 without even completing a pass. When you find a fantasy QB who can score a plethora of points just with his legs, you will have a positional advantage at QB. The three-year pro did finish as the QB1 in 2019, but he regressed and finished as the QB10 last season. It really came down to a tail of two halves. Through Week 7, he served as the QB16, but he finished as the QB7 between weeks 8 and 17. In fact, he was the QB1 between weeks 14 and 17, which are arguably the most important times for your fantasy team(s). With the addition of both Rashod Bateman and Sammy Watkins, Jackson’s passing numbers should improve, but it wouldn’t come as a surprise if his rushing numbers dipped a bit. Nonetheless, the dual-threat QB should be one of the more prolific fantasy QBs in 2021. 

 

Jackson’s 2021 Prediction

Passing: 3,891 yards, 31 touchdowns, 12 interceptions

Rushing: 984 yards, 6 touchdowns, 5 fumbles

Fantasy Points: 385.0 STD Points

 

3) Josh Allen – Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen: A case for Drew Lock |

Allen’s Career Stats

Year Team Games Played Completion Percentage Yards TDs INTs Rushing Yards TDs
2018 BUF 12 52.8% 2,074 10 12 631 8
2019 BUF 16 58.8% 3,089 20 9 510 9
2020 BUF 16 69.2% 4,544 37 10 421 8

 

The reigning QB1 of 2020 comes into the season with a ton of hype, and it’s well deserved. Allen passed for 1,455 more yards and 17 more touchdowns in 2020 than he did the season prior. He went from finishing as the QB6 in 2019 to topping every other QB last season. He just keeps getting better, but it would be hard to imagine Allen producing better numbers than he did last season. He is surrounded by mediocre RBs that don’t do a ton in the receiving game, and he doesn’t have a reliable TE that he can count on heavily in the red zone (Dawson Knox finished with just three touchdown receptions last season). On the other hand, Allen has a trio of receivers that makes his fantasy value enticing. Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, and Emmanuel Sanders will draw a ton of attention in 2021, and both Isaiah McKenzie and Gabriel Davis will get involved at times as well. Expect a top-5 finish from Allen, but it’s going to be hard to repeat as the QB1 this season.  

 

Allen’s 2021 Prediction

Passing: 4,787 yards, 35 touchdowns, 11 interceptions

Rushing: 515 yards, 6 touchdowns, 5 fumbles

Fantasy Points: 392.0 STD Points

 

2) Kyler Murray – Arizona Cardinals

Arizona Cardinals could use more skill position help even with Hopkins

Murray’s Career Stats

Year Team Games Played Completion Percentage Yards TDs INTs Rushing Yards TDs
2019 ARI 16 64.4% 3,722 20 12 544 4
2020 ARI 16 67.2% 3,971 26 12 819 11

 

MURRAY BROKE OUT last season in fantasy by finishing as the QB2. He was actually on top in fantasy points for most of the season. In Week 9, Murray dethroned Wilson as the QB1. Week in and week out, Murray stood on top, but in the final week of the season, Allen overtook him for the top spot. Nonetheless, the then second-year pro was unstoppable. He finished with at least 25 points eight times, 30 points five times, and his best performance came in Week 7, where he scored 38.1 in a win over the Seahawks. Coming into this season, Murray will still have DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, and Andy Isabella to throw to. He will also have a few new targets in A.J. Green and rookie Rondale Moore. 

 

Murray’s 2021 Prediction

Passing: 4,285 yards, 31 touchdowns, 13 interceptions

Rushing: 817 yards, 8 touchdowns, 4 fumbles

Fantasy Points: 395.1 STD Points

 

1) Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes: 25 eye-catching records on Chiefs QB's 25th birthday

Mahomes’ Career Stats

Year Team Games Played Completion Percentage Yards TDs INTs Rushing Yards TDs
2017 KC 1 62.9% 284 0 1 10 0
2018 KC 16 66.0% 5,097 50 12 272 2
2019 KC 14 65.9% 4,031 26 5 218 2
2020 KC 15 66.3% 4,740 38 6 308 2

 

Mahomes finished as the QB1 in 2018 during his MVP season, but since then, he has finished as the QB8 and QB4 respectively. But how do you justify placing Mahomes in any spot below the QB1? He has everything he needs to finish on top once again. He has the top TE in the league in Travis Kelce. Mecole Hardman and Tyreek Hill are two of the fastest and most dynamic players in the league today. Kansas City’s offensive line is top-notch after adding Kyle Long, Orlando Brown, and Joe Thuney this offseason. The Chiefs’ RBs, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darrel Williams, and Jerrick McKinnon, all possess great pass-catching abilities out of the backfield. Oh, and one more thing, Mahomes’ head coach is Andy Reid, one of the best offensive minds this league has ever seen. Mark it down, Mahomes is the QB1 entering the 2021 season. 

 

Mahomes’ 2021 Prediction

Passing: 5,071 yards, 41 touchdowns, 9 interceptions

Rushing: 339 yards, 4 touchdowns, 3 fumbles

Fantasy Points: 403.7 STD Points

Did you enjoy this article and want more fantasy content? Make sure to check out my recent posts, and stay tuned for other positional rankings in the future. You can also follow me on Twitter @dirrim23, where I love talking about all things fantasy football!

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